12 hours to the finale…

Qualifying is finished and the grid filled for the Abu Dhabi GP twelve hours from now. Lewis Hamilton qualified second, with Nico Rosberg taking pole by a .386 seconds; not a stunner as Rosberg has proven himself the king of quals this season.

Hamilton biggest competition will likely come from the Williams duo; Bottas and Massa secured third and fourth on the grid.  From P1 to P3 the William’s team reduced the time differentials and in Q3 Bottas was in third by .159 seconds with Massa .094 off Bottas pace. The experience of Massa may help his race pace, and Bottas is just flat out fast this year. If Hamilton has to contend with these two trying to get through it could play straight into Rosberg’s hand; bigger mistakes come from defending a position than trying take one.

Over the last three Grands Prix in Sochi, Austin, and Sao Paulo the Williams have steadily lowered the gap in qualifying, but that has not translated into race pace, as the Williams have faded in time differentials and finishing spots.

I would think that if the Mercedes teammates can get through the first sector of lap one clean that they will be able to clear themselves from the field and they will then go racing. From the start, barring mechanical failures, this race will look much as the third round in Bahrain, with the Mercedes livery competing for first place throughout. Hamilton will not sit idly by for a safe finish – it doesn’t seem to be his temperament, whereas Rosberg seems to favor consistency over finishes, making a hard charge out front less likely.

The Constructors Standings will see Williams finish ahead of Ferrari, and with that the likely departure of Team Principal Marco Mattiacci, who was named to the position earlier in the season replacing Stefano Domenicali. As dominant as the Prancing Horse team was in the 2000’s with Schumacher and Barrichello, since 2008 they have not won the title, and have secured one second place finish in that time, sandwiched between third and fourths. Red Bull had their run of four titles during that span; will this be the start of a dominating string of firsts for Mercedes?

Regardless of the outcome, the wish is for a clean race with good competition, and no spanners in the works to obscure the finish to what has been a tremendous season. There will be a few Irish coffees at 8:00 in the morning, toasting to the last wheels turned in anger before the down season rolls about.

Cheers!

Riley C.

12 hours to the finale…

This is how a F1 season should end. Well, sort of…

It is the Tuesday before the final race of the Formula 1 season; the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on 23 November 2014. The circuit Yas Marina is the ‘site of the fight’ to settle the Drivers Championship for 2014, with one of the Mercedes Works drivers taking the spot at the top of the F1 world. Team drivers Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg will battle for the championship in uncharted territory; double points will be awarded for the finale this Sunday, a first for Formula 1 scoring.

As a fan I am bursting – the air around me is charged with excitement and anticipation, palpable to friends and family! The finale will bring a close to one of the best seasons in recent years. The Mercedes teams dominance this season has been phenomenal, leaving the rest of the field to sort out rankings behind their successes for both the constructor and driver standings. Many see this kind of season-long dominance as taking away from the sport, but not I…

The competitiveness between Lewis and Nico on track has run the gamut of emotions this season, making it a memorable one, along the way keeping the interest and side stories bounding about like kangaroos. In Australia Lewis turns only two laps due to engine failure, with Nico running away at the front of the field and taking full points heading into round two in Malaysia. Lewis then comes back in amazing fashion, taking pole on Saturday, leading every lap, and setting fastest lap; the grand slam. From there the season and stories built, all of which lead to one pressure packed weekend…

If the air is charged around me on a Tuesday, it will be thick enough this coming weekend in Abu Dhabi to charge all of the ERS ‘s in the field. The Yas Marina is a circuit worthy of deciding the championship, and it boasts an amazing backdrop to settle things.

Adding to the electrical storm is that both Mercedes pilots have had success at the venue; Hamilton with a win and Rosberg with a third place podium finish. Rosberg, though, has not led a lap at Yas Marina, whereas Hamilton has led 36 laps. Experience counts… for some things. Will it this weekend?

Through the electrical storm I’m looking forward through the back – the back of the field. Williams has had an exceptional season, and in the last five races of the campaign they have continued to improve and gobble up points; Botas and Massa have catapulted Williams into top-five finishes in all but one race since Singapore, only missing the top five in Japan. Likewise, McLaren have crafted a number of good drives to the front since Singapore, with Button and Magnussen pushing their livery forward in race trim improvements, and in the points race.

Right behind Mercedes is the Red Bull Team, sitting second place in the Constructors Championship, with teammates Daniel Riccardo and Sebastian Vettel holding third and fourth in the Drivers Standings. But Vettel is only two points out in front of Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso, and only three in front of William’s Bottas. There is much to be settled behind the top two, making for compelling stories up and down the paddock.

Following up on previous posts, the double points award for this race still makes me a bit queasy. With a 17 point separation from 1st to 2nd Lewis Hamilton has to fare no worse than second place to insure his second Drivers Title; while the double points is somewhat ‘contrived’, at least it does not throw the title away to an undeserving driver. Without double points Hamilton could have insured victory with a fifth place finish. And what is the difference between second and fifth in F1? A cavern in space and time… a cavern!

And as of this writing my $15 donation helped to send the Caterham Team to the final race in Abu Dhabi! While they are in Administration, the crowdfunding effort previously mentioned raised enough money quickly enough to allow those in control of the teams books to send them to the race – I think that speaks volumes to the fans of F1, and should be read loudly enough so the powers that be in the sport take notice of what the fans feel about the ‘second tier’ teams. It would be fitting if somehow they could come away with a point from this race! Not bloody likely, but it would be a hell of a story!

So will the strategy change for the Mercedes team at all this weekend? Will reliability be more important than speed? Or will the Silver Arrows push to clear themselves of the field so they can fight with fewer complications? Williams, Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari; all of the teams have their own fights this weekend, and this may end up not only being the bigger story, but could end up having an affect on the outcome of the top two – which would then be an even bigger story!

I was completely detached from the Spint Cup Title last weekend because the knockout system was a sham as far as deciding a championship. This weekend will be the exact opposite – I’ll be perched in my most comfortable setting with some bourbon and coke, too many communication toys at my fingertips, anxiously awaiting the outcome from Yas Marina, all the while trying to harness that electricity in the air…

This season has been one for the books; here is to hoping it ends that way!

Cheers!

Riley C.

This is how a F1 season should end. Well, sort of…

NASCAR got it wrong this time. Very, very wrong…

I’m a fan of anything that can go fast, or can be raced. I’ve wasted an hour of my life at 2:00 A.M. on a Thursday watching swamp buggies try to navigate the ‘sippy hole’ in some god-forsaken swamp in the Deep South. I grew up a fan of open wheel racing and the major series I follow have endured many changes. Management, rules, regulations, and drivers have all changed, some for the good, some not. I have always kept an eye on NASCAR though, and I blame the 1979 Daytona 500. Watching Cale Yarborough and Bobby Allison go bare-knuckle after each other on the last lap was 25% racing, 25% luck, and 50% promotional genius. Ever since that race I have been amazed at the way the NASCAR management structure drags its feet on driver and fan safety, always reacting instead of anticipating, how it now pays teams to ‘start & park’ to fill out fields, and how it has generally mismanaged its popularity into the current state of affairs.

On the eve of the final race of the 2014 season, sadly, I could care less who takes home the season championship, or the ‘Race for the Chase’ as it has been billed. Why am I less than interested, and so sad? I don’t like to be sad…

The new knockout system to decide the driver title has brought the season down to four drivers. Here is the breakdown of their season stats:

Driver Races Wins Top 5’s Top 10’s Poles
Denny Hamlin 34 1 7 17 3
Joey Logano 35 5 16 22 1
Ryan Newman 35 0 4 15 0
Kevin Harvick 35 4 13 19 8

All stats courtesy of Racing Reference

And here is a breakdown of a few other worthy contestants for the title that didn’t make it into the final 4 – you might recognize a few of these names:

Driver Races Wins Top 5’s Top 10’s Poles
Jeff Gordon 35 4 14 22 2
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 35 4 12 20 0
Brad Keselowski 35 6 16 19 5
Jimmie Johnson 35 4 11 19 1

All stats courtesy of Racing Reference

I like numbers, and I thought NASCAR did as well. So why don’t we do a little crunching eh? Just for shits and giggles….

We will award a point values for the finishing spots summarized above. Wins are worth 4 points, Top 5’s, 3, Top 10’s, 2, and Poles are worth 1 point. We’ll do some spreadsheet magic and come up with the following sorted list of the eight drivers mentioned above.

So, here is where we end up – red = out of the chase, green = in:

Driver Races Wins Top 5’s Top 10’s Poles Total Points
Brad Keselowski 35 6 16 19 5 149
Joey Logano 35 5 16 22 1 148
Jeff Gordon 35 4 14 22 2 139
Kevin Harvick 35 4 13 19 8 136
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 35 4 12 20 0 127
Jimmie Johnson 35 4 11 19 1 123
Denny Hamlin 34 1 7 17 3 97
Ryan Newman 35 0 4 15 0 77

Well now, looky there.

So, out of the eight drivers, two of the four are at the rock bottom of our quick stab at weighting their season long performance. And not by a small amount, but by a large amount. Lets take a few other drivers and throw them into this mix – these are four drivers out of the next group highest in point standings not listed above:

Driver Races Wins Top 5’s Top 10’s Poles Total Points
Matt Kenseth 35 0 13 21 2 83
Kyle Busch 35 1 9 15 4 65
Carl Edwards 35 2 7 14 2 59
Kasey Kahne 35 1 3 11 5 4

So from this list, we take Matt Kenseth and put him in the top eight above, and take out Ryan Newman completely.

I don’t like to be sad. I like to be happy. I may not have the Sprint Cup on the top of my list, but I also hate to see the season title be made a sham.

I hope like hell that Ryan Newman wins. It would help to rid the series of a really crappy way to settle the title…

But wait – this is NASCAR I’m talking about! Even if he does win, and they scrap this latest brainstorm, they’ll find a new way this down season to bollocks up the works for next year.

Cheers!

Riley C.

NASCAR got it wrong this time. Very, very wrong…

Enough of politics, back to the racing…

Thank goodness the midterm elections are history. Back to what drives me…

I’m a follower of anything that rolls fast on anything, anywhere and powered by whatever. Cars, bikes, motorcycles, hell, I’ll even watch boats race if I’ve the time and outlet! As an F1 fan the last few months have been interesting to say the least. A major on-track incident that raises questions about safety procedures, teams being put into administration due to financial woes, and a change in points distribution have made for a season wrap-up that could leave as many questions as answers for the drivers, teams, fans, and administration.

The 2014 sporting season has been dominated by the Mercedes AMG F1 team. They secured the Constructors Championship in round sixteen in the inaugural Russian GP with three races remaining in the season. Teammates Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg have won every race to date except three, which were won by Daniel Ricciardo of Red Bull Racing. At this writing, the Mercedes teammates are 1-2 on the grid for the 2014 penultimate race, the Brazil GP running 11/9/14.  leading up to the finale in Abu Dhabi Nov. 21-23. Hamilton holds a 24 point lead over Rosberg at 316-292, and with 25 points to the winner of the race, 18 to second, and so on. One would think that with the performance and pace the Mercedes FW 105 Hybrid has shown this season all Hamilton has to do is finish races to secure the drivers title. But wait – theres more!

The powers that be, FIA and FISA, have set double points to be awarded in the final race, so the distribution will be 50, 36, and so on. Hamilton has won ten races to Rosberg’s four with streaks of four and five consecutive race wins bookended around stretches of questionable reliability, bad luck, and on-ciruit run ins with his teammate. To be in the mix at this stage in the season is a little bit of a gift being handed to Rosberg. The title cannot be decided before the finale, and the double points award for Abu Dhabi makes for more hand-wringing in the Lewis camp moving forward. The reward for his consistency, patience, and dominance on track is to sweat out having to finish strong and fight to the end of every race. Right up to the end, this season will produce many stories to carry into the down time and on to next year.

The traveling show that is F1 generates over 1.5 billion USD a year in revenue. To put that in perspective, Sierra Leone’s GDP was 1.9 billion USD in 2011. So yes, the annual revenue F1 generates could run a small country for the year. How that revenue is divided is a source of contention amongst the competitors, with less successful teams receiving a smaller piece of the revenues than the more successful ones. The specifics of the allocations are a well kept secret, but it is known that Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull receive extra money annually from several special funds set up in the F1 budget to keep these monikers afloat at any expense. The reasons levied are that these teams are Formula 1; fans do not tune in to see Caterham or Marussia flail at the back of the field, or to see Force-India or Sauber struggle to win points. The prevailing thought is that these top-tier teams are the only reason asses are in the seats, and that without them the sport that is F1 would no longer exist. The depth and extent of the troubles some teams are in effaced itself with the absence of Caterham and Marussia at the USGP in Austin TX last week

In the last two weeks Caterham and Marussia were put into administration in the UK (administration being similar to bankruptcy court in the US) with the dominos falling down to the hundreds of affected employees. Marussia could not find any money or sponsors to help keep them afloat, so they have ceased operations, being locked out of their own facilities. Caterham is not throwing in the towel however, resorting to a crowd-funding effort to help keep them going long enough to make the last race in Abu Dhabi. A noble effort; I’ll throw a few bucks their way on principle alone. After much thought and many reads on the subject I’ve managed an opinion different from the one I formed upon initially hearing the news.

First, more power to Caterham for trying to right the ship any way they can. As a business owner that knows lean times I would welcome and applaud their success, if they can pull it off. But my initial thoughts were on the revenues available, and if the top-tier teams get a larger share, then why not offer up support to the lower tier teams to keep the fields intact? With a full field this year there were 22 cars at each GP, and at Austin the 18 car starting grid looked amazingly thin. And after a first lap bonsai move by the always erratic and overdriving Sergio Perez the remaining race field of 16 was overshadowed only by the debacle that was the 2005 USGP when 6 cars started the race. True, the smaller field was not a pretty sight, but is that what really matters?

If the Caterhams and Marussias of F1 cannot make their budgets work, then isn’t the problem landing clearly on their own stoop? And does that mean a bailout from the F1 management would be the right move? I understand that many lives are tangled into the fabric of the teams problems, but it feels like shoveling more money into the fire is wrong. If there is a lesson in this then it should be learned and shouldered by both sides of the debate, and changes obviously must be made moving forward. Teams should take their budget as it is laid out in front of them and make the team work. If engine development is allotted 10 million dollars, spend it, and then stop. If aerodynamic upgrades during the season is allotted 25 million, spend it, and then stop. Need more money for brake upgrades? Take that money from another appropriation and and give it to the brake appropriation. If midway though the season all that is left is to compete with what equipment development you have then compete. Run the teams as a business first. If more is needed to become more competitive and it cannot be found, then the team must endure with its capabilities or move on as Marussia has. These teams are not the first to close shop or tread precariously in deep water; many before them have fallen over many years. That being said, if the F1 management wants some level of parity and more teams entering the circus then they must come to terms with how money is allocated, and also, and more importantly, they must come to terms with capping costs in some fashion. The high-budget teams argue that they are capable and will spend what they must to remain on top, and that caps are unmanageable and arbitrary. The smaller teams will argue that they can never compete with the current structure. So what to do then….

The question actually is, what does Formula 1 want to be?

If they wish to insure the top tier teams continue to drive the revenue growth and the smaller teams be damned, then continue on the current path. Frankly, if no changes are made, I will keep watching. I will not turn the channel off, or stop DVR’ing quals and practices. Nope. I’ll be right there watching and enjoying no matter what. The circus has to get much less enjoyable to put up with for that to happen.

Then again, if they want more competitors or more parity, then they could cap spending, somehow, someway. Big data knows everything, and a 1.5 billion dollar operating budget can cap costs and track spending if they so desire. The sporting regulations already cap off season track testing. It could be done. And there could always be other methods to create parity. Think pop-off valves in Indy cars. Granted there are other higher-tech methods that could be used, but just take that as an example. But what does that buy the F1 powers that be? Is that in their best interests? Parity and competitiveness, quite frankly, have never been the calling card of Formula 1.

No, the best interests of Formula 1 are being served, 1.5 billion of them at a time it seems. And that is not necessarily wrong. Take the money out of the equation and what do you have? You would still have a handful of  top level teams trying to settle things on track, and establish their dominance as a manufacturer. For all of the names bandied about it is still the likes of Ferrari, McLaren, Lotus, Renault, and Mercedes that will be racing somewhere, somehow to out-duel so they can outsell the others. These teams sell to other independent teams, giving them a competitive chance. So Formula 1 is what it is today, a global force that will run as the money wants it to run. I’m all for the little guy, and pull for the underdog, because that is what I am and identify with. But the current structure of F1 is what it wants to be, and it works quite well. F1 can be whatever it wants to be; the interesting thing over the next few years will be to see what it becomes.  In the same vein that final race points were doubled, and track testing capped, and safety regulations changed, so will the future of Formula 1 evolve. Where that evolution takes it will be one hell of a ride to take. And I’ll be riding along.

Cheers:)

Riley C.

Enough of politics, back to the racing…

Post Election Day Blues….

Well, as predicted, but still decried, the GOP ran roughshod through the midterm elections and took control of the House. Not as if it was a rocket coming in sideways; the levers that prompted it are where I scratch what’s left of the hair on me head…

midterm_map

The run up to the midterms had the Democratic candidates distancing themselves from President Obama. As a Democrat / Independant / naysayer of all – I have to ask – why?

I’m sure some will simply turn their heads and utter “duh” – isn’t it obvious? But as with everything in life, if we dig deeper to find root cause, why starts to become blurry….

Many of the indicators of a positive economy  are high heading into the midterms, as seen in a previous post. The Federal Government’s dysfunctions are well noted and not the responsibility of the President alone. Think about it with an open mind for just the next minute. If the office of the President was the sole reason our representatives in the Nations Capital have done essentially nothing for the last two years, well, Dems and the GOP alike would have run Mr Obama out of town many moons ago. Anyone who thinks one man alone is the architect of this dysfunction needs to go back to Government 101 and start over. No one individual is that powerful or that unlucky.

I used the word architect. Hmmm. Happenstance? Not bloody likely. When it comes to brandishing the weaponry required to get the likes of Scott Desjarlais and Michael Grimm re-elected the money trail will end with the Supreme Court decision allowing corporations to fund campaigns. I could point to individuals, or brothers, or specific large corporations, but instead will comment on the effects of the decision. Years ago the seed was planted that brought us to where we are today.

Not every nugget the current administration mines is gold. Some are slag, some are coal << insert war on coal jokes here >> but some are gold. War on coal. Funny that as well. Let’s save that for a bit later though. When you let big money into politics it will work to propagate its own agenda. It is a well documented fact, and not only opinion. The birth of the Super PAC has helped to make a mockery of the office of the president, as well as supporting candidates that will forward the PAC’s and big money’s agendas. Granted, again, not every decision dealt by the Obama administration was gold; but lets talk about one that is.

Add up these quick facts on the Affordable Healthcare Act (AHA).

  • Fact one; Kentucky has had over 210,000 enrollees in the Affordable Healthcare Act. This is a significant win for the AHA, for Kentucky, and the individuals it covers. Kentucky is not alone in this being a win-win. Other states and economically depressed areas are benefitting to the same degrees. A positive fact.
  • Fact two; Mitch McConnell has commandeered over five million dollars in 2014 alone from Business donations to his campaign funding. Over five million dollars. From business interests alone. In 2014 alone. That is over 90% of his contributions for the year. I’ve heard candidates funds called a “war chest”; this doesn’t fight a war, it brings the lambs in for slaughter. A negative fact.
  • Fact three; McConnell will do everything he can to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which has benefitted over 210,00 people in his home state, and has withstood over 50 votes in the house to repeal it. More valuable time wasted. A negative fact.
  • Positive fact one + negative fact two + negative fact three = Mitch McConnell is not working for his constituents, he is working for big money.

If ever there was a dearth of reasons to push to enact term limits? Or to repeal the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision?

And the “war” on coal. Thirty, twenty-five, twenty, fifteen, hell, ten years ago, Mitch McConnell should have tried to think beyond the now and into the future of the coal industry. The negative impacts on our planet, and the negative effects on the miners locked into it’s dark hold need to be addressed not as a marketing tool but as a real problem that needs fixing. Had McConnell thought ahead, worked ahead, worked and thought outside the box, into alternative choices of energy generation and dependency, then the “war” on coal would not need to be fought. McConnell has propagated and entrenched Eastern Kentucky’s coal fields and its  workers into the slate dumps and toxic retention ponds made famous by its Mountaintop Removal mining.

Take what you will from the 2014 general election results. Each of us should come to our own conclusions. But if there is a breath of humanity in you, take the next two years and work to better things for yourself, those close to you, but more importantly, for those not close to you, regardless of party affiliations. Think outside your sphere of influence, concern, control. Think wider than the skies are wide. Think not of your own self-interests, but ahead, in kindness, and for all, not for the one.

So the answer to draw from the why?

Money. As simple as that. The want of it, the need for more of it, the price it extracts, the path to it, the path from it. Money. That is the why; always has been, always will. And seemingly, it will always find low tide.

I’ll close on a lighter note:) Some lyrics from a song that fits now more than ever. The Big Money – Rush.

Big money goes around the world
Big money underground
Big money got a mighty voice
Big money make no sound
Big money pull a million strings
Big money hold the prize
Big money weave a mighty web
Big money draw the flies

Sometimes pushing people around
Sometimes pulling out the rug
Sometimes pushing all the buttons
Sometimes pulling out the plug
It’s the power and the glory
It’s a war in paradise
It’s a Cinderella story
On a tumble of the dice

Big money goes around the world
Big money take a cruise
Big money leave a mighty wake
Big money leave a bruise
Big money make a million dreams
Big money spin big deals
Big money make a mighty head
Big money spin big wheels

Sometimes building ivory towers
Sometimes knocking castles down
Sometimes building you a stairway
Lock you underground
It’s that old time religion
It’s the kingdom they would rule
It’s the fool on television
Getting paid to play the fool

Big money goes around the world
Big money give and take
Big money done a power of good
Big money make mistakes
Big money got a heavy hand
Big money take control
Big money got a mean streak
Big money got no soul…

Post Election Day Blues….

Midterm Elections

With the midterm elections finally here and voting taking place today I’m pinched into getting out the word as I see it… Oddly, I kind of wish this wasn’t my first post…

Living in Kentucky, the Senate race between incumbent Mitch McConnell and Alison Lundergan-Grimes is first up. In the last six years Senator McConnell has done everything he can to create gridlock in Washington. He along with Speaker Boehner have stalled progress on any legislation that forwards any democratic agenda, even when compromise is proposed.

Some facts showing change in major economic indicators since the last recession in 2009-2010:

  1. Consumer confidence is at a highpoint, 94%, since the last recession, a rise of over 60%.
  2. Unemployment has steadily decreased since the last recession from over 10% to  just above 6%.
  3. 10 million more people have healthcare coverage now due to the Affordable Healthcare Act, but more importantly those getting coverage are in areas of economic need, showing that the premise of the act, to bring healthcare to more Americans that could not afford it has worked.
  4. The Federal Deficit has been cut in half since 2009.

Many of the major indicators point to our economy improving, unemployment lowering, better access to healthcare for all, and a reduced deficit. Most of areas of improvement are opportunities for change due to the last recession….

Point being, while all of this is taking place, the leadership in the Senate is doing everything they can to do nothing more than gain control to reverse the positive trends in consumer confidence, unemployment, healthcare, and deficits.

Since the Supreme Court decision in 2010 to allow corporate entities unlimited campaign finance we now run the risk, as a nation, of allowing corporations to buy government that will propagate their interests ahead of the interests of the constituents that government is designed to serve.

Simply put, to change government and remove the gridlock, we have to change government. Thirty years of Mitch McConnell is an example. If half of that term was spent on productive ideas and legislation to aid Kentuckians in need, think where the state could be instead of where it is. Lagging in healthcare, education, jobs, technology, and battling drug abuse in the Appalachia’s, Kentucky has had years of opportunity to right a sinking ship, yet the same representatives with the same PAC’s, and same blind money flowing from the likes of the Koch brothers, keep the state relegated to a national laughingstock while the few, such as McConnell, continue to line their pockets and stave off positive change at all of the states expense.

Go ahead, tell em I’m wrong. I’d love to hear it.

Cheers \m/

Riley C.

Kickass today Kentucky!
Kickass today Kentucky!
Midterm Elections